After the debacle last Saturday in Athens, Kentucky’s season appeared to be on life-support. They were staring down the barrel of a hostile road game against a surging opponent and a top 10 team looking for revenge. The obituaries were written, Cal needed to be fired, and things felt bleak in BBN. Seven days later Kentucky has picked up 3 Quad 1 wins (thank you Buzz Williams), swept the bums from Knoxville, put themselves on the right side of the bubble, and a top 4 SEC Tournament seed firmly in their grasp. How did it happen?
Chris Livingston
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Chris Livingston has been steadily improving for a couple of weeks but the last two games he’s really stepped up and made winning plays in both games. Against Mississippi State Livingston had 13 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 1 block. He hit one huge jumper as State was surging to quiet the crowd and settle the Cats down to finish it off. He was also 6/6 from the FT line including two clutch ones to essentially end any chance of a State comeback. Against Tennessee, Livingston had 12 points, 10 rebounds (led the team), 1 assist, and 1 block. He made multiple winning plays on the offensive glass and grabbed huge defensive rebounds to keep one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country from finding their way back into the game.
In both games he also added an extra defensive presence that Kentucky sorely missed early in the year and with what has been dubbed the “Benny Lineup” (which I hate by the way). Mississippi State and Tennessee don’t have the personnel that really give us fits but having Chris on the floor gives a little extra length when trying to help on the pick and roll. Livingston has also hit a 3 in 4 straight games and is shooting 38% (2nd best on the team based on percentages now) on the year while also being able to get to the line (where he shoots 80% despite missing a couple on Saturday). These are the kind of guys Cal has always won with and while it took some time Chris has stayed patient and answered the bell.
For months we’ve heard that that Cal needed to roll with the “Benny Lineup” but Chris is a good example of why fans need to relax and understand that basketball isn’t played on a Spreadsheet. Coaches have to manage real people and Cal sticking with Chris even when he probably wasn’t quite ready has paid off big time this week. Assuming CJ is able to come back soon (not hearing good things on Wheeler) Kentucky will now be better with Chris proven he has a role.
The Offense
Despite the handwringing about Cal not being able to coach X’s and O’s on offense and his lineups being outdated or archaic the offense has been good. Kentucky is now in the top 20 on AdjO on Kenpom and this week specifically it put up 71 points against a top 5 defensive team in the country (according to Kenpom) and scored 40 points in a half against the best defensive team
in the country. Cason Wallace has been patient in running the team (despite not shooting well) and Reeves has had spurts of instant offense. In addition, Kentucky has continued to eat up offensive rebounds and create second chance opportunities while also shooting well from the FT line. This offense has rounded into a very good unit despite being short-handed. It’s not always pretty but it’s efficient and it’s a testament to Cal that he’s found the best role for multiple guys. Nothing that has happened this week is unsustainable assuming we get CJ back healthy to keep some wear and tear off of Cason and Antonio’s legs.
So Kentucky is Back?
We certainly have a right to be more optimistic than we were last week. That being said I think we also have to realize the margin for error with this team is really small. You can see the signs of fatigue on Cason/Reeves as they’re being overplayed. Last year we saw the impact that overload had on Grady/Mintz as they covered for TyTy/Wheeler injuries and it derailed the season despite everyone getting healthy for post-season play. Ideally, we get CJ/Wheeler back this week but we have to have one of them (Adou can probably play more of a role to make up for one being out long-term) soon. For this team to have a punchers chance it needs the full deck of cards at it’s disposal.
While we handled two elite defenses and picked up two Quad 1 wins it also must be said that both State and Tennessee are favorable matchups for our personnel. Neither of those teams have dynamic guards with multiple quick big men who also have elite athleticism that normally give us fits. There will be much harder matchups to come and predicting this team’s ceiling is really difficult. Going 3-1 over the last 4 games probably keeps them squarely in the tournament and out of the First 4 games in Dayton. I can also envision a scenario where they go 1-3 and we’re heading to the SEC Tournament needing to win 2-3 games (and likely having to play on Thursday) to feel good about our place in the tournament.
