BBN we’re rolling on with our 2023 opponent previews and today we’re on the hated Tennessee Volunteers. If you’ve missed our other previews, you can check them out here:
Series Outlook
Kentucky and Tennessee first met in 1893 (a 56-0 Kentucky win) and have played 118 times making it one of the oldest rivalries in CFB. Tennessee has dominated the rivalry as they lead the series 83-26-9. This includes an embarrassing 26 game win streak that was broken in 2010 and 35 of the last 38 meetings despite Tennessee’s program cratering in the late 2000’s and Stoops building Kentucky from scratch. Last year Tennessee had their best season in 20 years and completely dominated Kentucky 44-6. There was almost nothing positive about the game and looking back at the stats gave me PTSD so I don’t even want to talk about it here. As a palate cleanser we can mention the last time Kentucky won this game. In 2020 Kentucky won in Knoxville for the first time since 1984 in one of John Schlarman’s last games with the team. It was an emotional day for reasons bigger than just football and it holds a special place in my heart.
2022 Season
Unfortunately for every sane enjoyer of CFB the proclamation “Tennessee Is Back!” finally had some merit and we were all held hostage by one of the worst fanbases in all of college sports. Josh Heupel came into his 2nd season and almost everything broke perfectly for his gimmick offense to vault the Vols back into relevancy. Florida having a stinker of a year and Alabama not being up their normal standard coupled with being able to use a 27 year old QB in his 8th year of CFB created the perfect storm.
In all seriousness Tennessee was led by QB Hendon Hooker (jokes aside he was in his 6th year of CFB and was only 24) who threw for 3100 yards and 27 TD with only 2 INT. He fit like a glove into Heupel’s system and had two NFL Draft picks at WR in Jaylin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman along with a top 10 pick at OT in Darnell Wright.
Tennessee was also efficient on the ground with Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright combining for over 1600 yards and 26 TD. Hooker added another 400 yards on the ground. Tennessee rushed for almost 200 yards per game on the ground and averaged 5 yards per attempt. They weren’t just good at throwing the ball around as they were balanced and efficient in both phases.
On defense Tennessee showed improvement from 2021 but still not as efficient as the offense was. They ranked 127th in FBS in pass defense (which is even more damning for Levis’ struggles against them last season). They were good enough to not ruin a truly elite offense but that porous defense probably cost them a trip to the CFB Playoff by giving up 60+ points to South Carolina of all teams.
2023 Outlook
Heupel and is back for his 3rd season, but he’ll need to replace significant production on offense.
Joe Milton is slated to take over at QB after a strong performance against a barely interested Clemson in the Orange Bowl. They are also banking on guys like Bru McCoy and Squirrel White to step in at WR and recreate the production of Hyatt.
Both Small and Wright are back to carry the load out of the backfield but they’ll need to replace some pieces along the OL as Darnell Wright Jerome Carvin are both in the NFL. They’ve brought in John Campbell from Miami and Andrej Karic to shore up things up front and will need them to make immediate impacts.
Defensively the Vols are still a question mark. There were promising performances from LB Aaron Beasley and CB Doniek Slaughter in the Orange Bowl and they’ve added some portal guys in Keenan Pili and Gabe Jeudy-Lally in hopes it can solidify the defense as the offense will likely have to get up to speed with a new QB.
If Milton’s arm talent translates to actual football success, then Tennessee will just need the defense to be average to once again push Georgia for the SEC East.
Who Wins
We’re all friends here so we can I can admit that I hate Tennessee more than I hate any other program. I hate them more than Louisville and I’m not sure it’s even close. They have the worst color scheme in all of sports, they have the worst fans, and most frustratingly they seem to have a mental edge over this Kentucky football program. Until last season Kentucky had been the better program for about 5 seasons but were only able to beat Tennessee 2 of the last 10 times. It’s made worse now that all the abusive online and in stadium behavior Tennessee fans have subjected the masses to for the last 20 years suddenly was forgotten as they rode some real flukiness to relevancy.
I can’t in good faith pick Kentucky to win this game, even at home, until they give me a reason to. Even though I think Heupel is a fraud and his gimmick offense is a fad that needed the perfect circumstances to have the kind of year they ended up having. I think Tennessee is going to regress big time this season but I still can’t pick Kentucky to win this game because it’s not really about Tennessee, this program has been our Daddy all my life and this game brings me nothing but dread. Tennessee will win this game 38-31 and Joe Milton will look like a Heisman contender despite being painfully mediocre in every other game he plays.
Kentucky should be able to move the ball against a meh Tennessee defense and in theory we should have enough playmakers on D to get enough stops to win a football game at home. There is no football reason that this game should be chalked up as an automatic loss but here we are, the baggage is too much for me to feel any confidence about it. To make matters worse Kentucky is coming off a bye week and we seem to struggle with an extra week to prepare.
I am on my knees begging Stoops and Co. to win this game. If we go 1-11 but beat Tennessee and the season will be a success.
