Kentucky vs. Alabama: Preview

itKentucky welcomes Alabama to Rupp Arena in what has become a huge game for the Cats. Losing a 4^th game in Rupp Arena would be unprecedented.  I’m not sure what happens to the team when  the wave of negativity hits if Kentucky loses.

When: Saturday, February 24^th, at 4:00pm ET

Where: Rupp Arena

Channel: CBS

Alabama So Far

The metrics are in love with the Tide.  Despite being 19-7 on the season they are 6^th in Kenpom and 5^th in the NET.  Analyzing Alabama basketball has been a bit if struggle because they played quite a few good teams in the non-conference and promptly lost all of them.  They did keep those games close while scoring a lot of points (which is why the metrics love them) but their best win is a 4-point home win over Auburn.  The Tide are 3-6 in Quad 1 games and are probably going to need a couple more to avoid falling to 4/5 seed.

How Does Kentucky Matchup   

Had you asked me three weeks ago I would have said this matchup is like the Spiderman meme come to life but I’m not sure anymore.  Alabama is elite offensively because of how efficient they are.  They are 4^th in the country in 3 point attempts as they take almost 31 a game, and 14^th in the country shooting percentage as they hit 38%.  Besides their shooting they are exceptional at gettting to the line.  They get there 22 times a game where they almost 80% as a team.  Kentucky has improved defensively the last three weeks but this will be it’s biggest test.  The Tide are rarely harassed into take bad shots like Auburn and Ole Miss were and they don’t miss point blank shots like LSU did.

Defensively the Tide are not as good but they are a good rebounding team.  Kenpom has Alabama ranked in the 70’s for AdjD (which is where Kentucky is now after jumping almost 50 spots in the last 10 days) but the Tide do a lot of things just well enough to support their efficient offense.  They have good rim protection and avoid giving up free points with fouls.  How they avoid those fouls is a mystery because like a lot of SEC teams they straddle the line between physical and dirty.  Against Florida one of their back-up bigs (Mohammed Wague) elbow dropped someone in the head and not only got away it with during the game got a foul called on Florida.  The SEC has come back and suspended him so he won’t available against Kentucky.

Player To Watch

It’s an obvious answer but you have to mention the SEC’s leading scorer in Mark Sears.  He’s averaging 20.4 points a game (Reeves is third in the SEC averaging 19.7) and is excellent at fitting into what Nate Oats wants.  He is rarely ever rushed when trying to get to his spots and is an elite shooter while also being able to get to the rim and finish or get fouled.  Kentucky will have its hands full in trying to slow him down.  DJ starting on strong on him like he did against the Auburn guards last week will be important.

Sears is not a particularly good defender so there is an opportunity for any of Rob/Reed/DJ to attack him.

Who Wins

I don’t love this matchup for Kentucky and if they Tre still isn’t healthy the task becomes monumental.  Kentucky was able to grind a win over Auburn while being short-handed, but Auburn is kind of a fraud.  Alabama has much better guard play and Kentucky is going to need to score.  Relying on one guy to get hot probably won’t cut it either.  It goes against Cal’s nature but I think he might have to forget the new found defensive identity and just try to score 100.  Kentucky can not afford to fall into any type of hole.

Alabama wins 93-85.  The big picture conversations that I try to avoid will be hard to ignore.

Go Cats.