Kentucky vs. Arkansas: Preview

Kentucky heads down to Fayetteville to take on a reeling Arkansas program this weekend.  After a tough loss midweek this game has become a huge opportunity.  Lets dive into what we can expect for the Razorbacks.

When: Saturday, January 27th at 6pm ET

Where: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas

Channel: ESPN

Arkansas So Far

Arkansas came into the season with a ton of hype.  They were picked to finish 3^rd in the SEC and things have not gone according to plan.  Arkansas sits at 10-9 overall and an abysmal 1-5 in SEC play.  Their lone SEC win was a home game against A&M where they nearly blew a 20-point lead.  In their 5 conference losses they haven’t even really been competitive.  They’ve lost by margins of 32, 10, 22, 13, and most recently a 26-point loss on the road to Ole Miss on Wednesday.

It’s important to remember that Arkansas got off to a 1-5 start in SEC play last year before ultimately finishing 8-10 in conference and ending up in the S16 after upsetting Kansas in the 2^nd round.  That team was having to adjust on the fly due to injuries and they got mostly healthy by the end of the year.  This year’s team has had some injury bumps (like everyone) but nothing that would suggest them being this bad.  Arkansas likely will not make the tournament unless they win out (or end up winning the SEC Tournament).

How Does Kentucky Matchup

On paper this Arkansas team is a bad matchup for Kentucky.  They have a ton of skilled/athletic individuals to cause Kentucky a lot of problems.  We also know that despite his insane corniness, Musselman has been one of the best game-planners in CBB.

However, this Arkansas team is an enigma. They should be good but watching them play is painful.  On offense they resort to a ton of foul-hunting because they (so far) really struggle to run good sets.  They do have some decent shooters in transfers Tramon Mark and Khalif Battle but neither have the tools to run a team.  That was supposed to be Davonte Davis’ job but he has fallen off a cliff after breaking out last year.

Defensively, Arkansas has all the tools to be high level on that end of the floor and they just…aren’t.  They have several good individual defenders (especially Mark who came from Houston where you have to defend to see the floor) but just like on offense it looks 5 individuals who met up before the game deciding to play CBB in the SEC.

Player To Watch

This one is difficult, but I’ll go with Trevon Brazille.  Last season Brazille looked like he was going to be one of the best players in CBB before tearing his ACL 9 games into the season.  This year he was voted All-SEC First Team but has not looked like the same player yet.  There are a variety of reasons that Arkansas has struggled but him not being what everyone thought is a big part of it.

The question for me is it only a matter of time before he gets fully comfortable after coming off that major injury?  We’re 19 games into the season and Brazille has not recovered the defensive fire that he showed even as a Freshmen at Missouri.  His offensive numbers have dipped but that is largely because of his usage dipping (Arkansas very much has a “my turn” attitude on offense) rather than his efficiency.  If he does recover the explosiveness he showed in his Freshmen season and 9 games last season he becomes a difference maker.

Who Wins

I have no idea what to think about Arkansas, but Kentucky is in a bad spot this weekend.  Gameday is showing up to Fayetteville and Arkansas fans absolutely hate Kentucky (we might be their biggest rival in basketball).  Arkansas has looked lifeless for weeks but there is no way those fans will be anything but raucous on Saturday.  Plus this Arkansas team is not anywhere near as bad as their metrics suggest.  In terms of talent, they are a top 20 team and knowing Musselman teams, it wouldn’t shock me if they end up .500 in SEC play.  The metrics are what they are though and that means Kentucky cannot lose this game.  The Razorbacks sit 126 in the NET and a loss here probably ruins any realistic chance of a 2 seed and might even make a 3 seed difficult.

I expect it to be close most of the game but Kentucky wins 82-76.