Kentucky vs. Arkansas: Preview Part II

After an emotional win on the road in Starkville Kentucky will return home to take on Arkansas for the 2^nd time this season.  The Hogs have not had the season they wanted but would love to have a big road win so the program can grab some momentum going into the offseason.

When: Saturday. March 2^nd at 1:30pm ET

Where: Rupp Arena

Channel: CBS

Arkansas So Far

Since losing 63-57 at home to Kentucky on January 27^th the Razorbacks have shown some slight improvement.  They’ve posted a 4-4 record (they were 1-6 after the loss to the Cats) but two of those wins have come over Missouri who is the worst team in the conference.  The other two were a home win over Georgia and a win on the road at A&M.  They still sit at 127 in the NET and 122 in Kenpom.

How Does Kentucky Matchup

As we saw in Fayetteville the Razorbacks have the profile of a team that can cause Kentucky some problems.  They are long and athletic which allows them to protect the rim when they decide to be in the right position.  They are frequently not though and teams have ripped them open.  Vanderbilt of all teams just put 85 on them on Tuesday night.  Kentucky missed a lot of open shots in the first 10 minutes of the game in Fayetteville and I’d be surprised if that happens again.  After the sluggish first half where the Cats only scored 24 points they put up 39 in the 2nd half in an efficient display.   Kentucky was also without Rob Dillingham due to an illness.

Offensively, the Hogs don’t really do anything well other than draw fouls.  In the matchup in Fayetteville Kentucky was able to defend Arkansas without fouling.  They attempted just 18 FTs (8 below their average) and could only score 57 points as a result.  In the first matchup Kentucky was able to basically lock the Hogs down and force them into a lot of midrange shots that they promptly missed.

Player To Watch

It’s hard to pick because Arkansas has several talented players who have been various levels of meh this season.  I’m going off the board and picking Devo Davis.  Davis was a preseason 2^nd team All-SEC selection but things have not gone according to plan.  He was asked to step away from the program 15 minutes before the tip against Kentucky (I won’t spread rumors on college kids but the story is out there for those interested) so did not play.  He missed two weeks and returned to the program for their game against Georgia on February 10^th.

Since returning he has not yet scored in double figures, in two of the games he went scoreless.  To me that makes it even more concerning.  For Arkansas, they are going to need someone to go nuclear to keep them in it.  It would be Peak Kentucky to have the guy who was All-SEC but was kicked off the team and then allowed back two weeks later to have his season high.

Who Wins

The Arkansas program seems to be in a state of chaos.  The players apparently dislike each other as well as not particularly liking their coach (who himself may not want to be in Fayetteville anymore).   Kentucky should win this one comfortably, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous.  Arkansas is massively underachieving with the talent they have in the program.  They’ve played two good games all season and they came in a home win against Duke and that January game against Kentucky.  I see no reason to believe they won’t play their best game of the season again tomorrow.

Kentucky wins 83-74 but I expect it to be closer than people think.  Historically teams that are massively underachieving like this usually have one last gasp late in the season to give fans and pundits hope they can make a run in a conference tournament.

Go Cats.