Kentucky vs. Auburn: Preview

Kentucky enters the stretch run of the season and heads to The Plains to take on the Auburn Tigers.  Winning midweek makes this game a little less pressure-packed but the Cats have an opportunity to get their season back on track with a  win.

When: Saturday, February 17^th, at 6:00pm ET

Where: Neville Arena, Auburn, Alabama

Channel: ESPN

Auburn So Far

The Tigers have largely taken care of business.  They have no anchor losses (they did lose to App State but as of now that is a Quad 2 loss) but only two Quad 1 wins.  At home though Auburn appears to be a different team (which is a theme of Bruce Pearl’s teams).  They are 13-0 at home this season, winning every game there by double digits.  They are coming off a 40 point beat down of a surprisingly good South Carolina team where the Tigers shot a flukish 60% from three.  The metrics love the Tigers as they sit 4^th in Kenpom and 6^th in the NET.

How Does Kentucky Matchup   

I don’t love this matchup for Kentucky.  Everyone familiar with Bruce Pearl knows he’s not really interested in coaching a basketball game, he wants to coach a street fight.  This usually comes back to haunt Auburn in the NCAA Tournament (and on the road) but at home they get away with it and thrive.  Unlike other teams who try this style Pearl also has some talented individuals who want to get up and down and if they get in a groove can roll you (as South Carolina found out).

Kentucky has struggled with this kind of physicality and has really struggled with it on the road.  If they are without Tre Mitchell (I expect they will be) I hate how the Cats matchup here unless one of Rob/Reeves go for 35+.

Auburn doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well but they often play lineups that have 4-5 guys who are capable shooters.  Against South Carolina their big guys went off from behind the arc, shooting a combined 9/12 from 3.  That probably isn’t a sustainable strategy (and maybe even some regression coming) but Kentucky will have to guard the perimeter at all times.

The game that is probably the most applicable to the matchup tomorrow was their home game against Alabama back on February 7^th.  The Tide had already beaten Auburn in Tuscaloosa, but in the matchup in Neville Arena the Tigers were able to turn the game into a knife fight.  The game had a combined 85 FTs and it kept Alabama from ever getting into a rhythm.  They pushed, pulled, hand-checked, and hacked all over the place taking the mindset that the refs couldn’t call all of them.  Auburn won the war of attrition.  I suspect they’ll do something similar tomorrow.

Player To Watch

Johni Broome.  The former Morehead State star is Auburn’s best player and probably one of the best players in the country when he’s playing at home.  He’s an outstanding rebounder, an outstanding rim protector, and efficient on the offensive end.  Kentucky is going to have their hands full trying to keep him from controlling the game.

Honorable mention to KD Johnson.  Not because he’s good but because he’s somehow still in school (and still has a COVID year to utilize I believe) and playing meaningful minutes despite being totally mediocre.  I expect him to have a big game tomorrow just because that is usually how these things work for Kentucky.

Who Wins

For big games Auburn has one of the best home-court environments in the country.  Pearl and his style fit Auburn’s inferiority complex like a glove and his team feeds off the disdain that fan base has for everyone.  It also influences the refs and Auburn uses that to their advantage.  As a result they have become virtually unbeatable at home (they’ve lost just twice in the last three seasons).

For Kentucky they have an opportunity to right their season.  Win tomorrow and the noise of the last two weeks is virtually gone.  I do expect Auburn to have some regression after their best game of the season but without Tre Mitchell (no news, but I’m assuming he’s going to miss at least one game) it’s hard to see a path to winning here for the Cats.

I don’t expect Auburn to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament but I think they win here.  I’ll go 88-79 Tigers.

Go Cats.