Kentucky was able to stop the bleeding Tuesday night in Nashville. They will now return home to on a good (but not great) Gonzaga team. This isn’t quite a must-win game but Kentucky needs this one as it is a Quad 1 opportunity.
When: Saturday, February 10th, at 4:00pm ET
Where: Rupp Arena
Channel: CBS
Gonzaga So Far
Gonzaga has not had a vintage Gonzaga season. In years past we have been used to the Bulldogs having a terrific non-conference with good wins in November/December and then padding wins in a meh conference. This season the Zags’ non-conference schedule was let down by UCLA and USC not being anywhere near as good as people thought in the preseason. They also lost by double digits to Purdue, UConn, and San Diego State. As of this writing Gonzaga is 0-5 in Quad 1 games with only a few opportunities left. The metrics still believe they are a good team (though not as good as previous seasons) as they come in at 22nd in Kenpom and 28th in the NET but they are in desperate need of actual wins to avoid being a bubble team.
How Does Kentucky Matchup
This matchup should not be particularly scary for Kentucky. Gonzaga has good players but compared to the highly skilled draft picks and NPOY candidates they used to have, this team comes up short.
It was kind of hard to evaluate this Gonzaga team because they play so few games against high-level opponents. In their 5 quad 1 games there were some worrying signs for the Bulldogs. Their offense frequently got bogged down by length. Gonzaga is active on that end of the floor and have some talent but the guard play is not what we’re used to seeing from a Mark Few team. They also don’t have a Drew Timme who can get a them a basket any time they get bogged down. The offense has improved since the beginning of the year but it’s hard to tell how much of that is playing in the WCC. St Mary’s beat them in Spokane less than a week ago with the Zags barely clearing 60 points.
Defensively, Gonzaga is nothing special on that end of the floor either. They do rebound well but give up quite a few open looks. Their rim protection is virtually non-existent and they are not the caliber of athlete that Kentucky is used to seeing in the SEC.
Player To Watch
Gonzaga has quite a few guys who could have a break-out but I’ll go with Anton Watson. He’s probably Gonzaga’s best player. He averages 14.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. He doesn’t take a ton of threes but shoots 44% from behind the arc. He’s got good size for a wing so Kentucky will probably have to throw a number of guys to try and slow him down. Adou Thiero and Justin Edwards are probably both going to be important.
Who Wins
This is a huge game for Kentucky despite it not being a conference game. The Cats are in desperate need of another Quad 1 win and this one will probably be the easiest remaining. We’re still waiting on news about Tre and DJ but even without those guys this game is winnable. Gonzaga will probably try to slow the game down into the half-court but unlike some of the teams who have tried that they don’t have the physicality to bump Kentucky out of rhythm. Kentucky should be able to put up points, so if they can keep the Zags from scoring 85+ Kentucky should pull this one out.
Kentucky wins 87-79.
