Coming off a carthatic beatdown of Alabama, Kentucky will head to Starkville to take on a hot Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs have won 5 straight and have put themselves firmly back in the Field of 68 as we gear up for March.
When: Tuesday. February , 27th at 7pm ET
Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Mississippi
Channel: ESPN
Mississippi State So Far
Since losing to Kentucky 90-77 in Rupp on January 17th the Mississippi State Bulldogs have posted a 7-3 record. They’ve won 5 straight games including just beating LSU by 20 on Saturday. With a 19-8 (8-6) record the Bulldogs are now firmly back in the NCAA Tournament field but probably need one more Quad 1 win to solidify their spot. State has jumped to 28th in the NET (which makes Kentucky’s win in Rupp against them a Quad 1 win for now) and 28th in Kenpom.
How Does Kentucky Matchup
As I wrote in the last preview Mississippi State is a big and tough team who thrive when the game becomes a fist fight. Kentucky poses a real matchup problem for them because they struggle to play with any pace due to their lack of elite guard play.
In the matchup in Rupp, Kentucky allowed the Bulldogs to grab 14 OREB. Most of those came in the 2nd half after Kentucky had already built a big lead but that can not happen tonight. State is going to miss a lot of shots (typically), there is no way they can score with Kentucky unless they feast on the offensive glass.
Defensively the Bulldogs are excellent as they rank 11th in Kenpom for AdjD. Despite that, Kentucky put up 90 points on them. State relies on physicality and length to bother players but when going against elite guards they get kind of exposed. Kentucky will have to run their offense through a lot of contact but if they can they will find success.
Player To Watch
By now everyone knows that Tolu Smith is State’s best player but I think the one to watch in this one is Josh Hubbard. Hubbard is a 5’10” Freshmen who is the Bulldog’s best guard. He was coming off the bench early in the season (and did so against Kentucky the first time) but the last 8 games he has been moved into the starting lineup.
In Rupp, Hubbard had a stinker, going 1-11 from the floor (1-9 from 3). A lot of that was due to State being pushed out of their comfort zone and needing to score. Quite a few of his shots were outside of the patient flow of offense that State usually runs. Some of it was just Hubbard missing open looks. He’s a 35% three-point shooter on the season and I wouldn’t count on him missing like that again.
He’s coming off a 32-point performance against LSU where he hit 6 threes. DJ Wagner did a great job on him in the January game and will likely be needed again.
Who Wins
This one is going to be a war. State will be determined to keep this game in the 60’s or low 70’s and being at home will make that easier. I expect Hubbard to continue his scoring tear and Tolu Smith to have his last big moment in a Mississippi State jersey.
State wins 74-71.
Go Cats.
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