Kentucky vs. Oakland: Preview

We have entered the End Game now and BBN is as nervous as I’ve ever seen it.  The first hurdle for Kentucky is the 14 seeded Oakland Golden Grizzlies team. In theory BBN shouldn’t be panicked by a 14 seed from the Horizon league but here we are.  4 years of frustration (which is unfair to the kids) sits on this team’s shoulders as we enter into the tournament.

When: Thursday. March 21^st, at 7:10pm ET

Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA

Channel: CBS

Oakland So Far

Oakland won the Horizon League regular season with a 15-5 (23-11 overall) record and secured their spot in the tournament by defeating Milwaukee 83-76 in the Final.  The Golden Grizzlies sit 137 in Kenpom and 126 in the NET so on paper there shouldn’t be a ton of concern from Kentucky, but as we know that doesn’t matter much this time of year.

Oakland has played four P6 opponents in the non-conference and went 1-3.  They lost by just 6 to Ohio State in the first game of the season and lost by 11 to Illinois (who is also a 3 seed) a few days later.  Both of those games were within one possession late in the 2^nd half.  They also lost to Michigan State by 17.  The one game they won against a P6 team was a pretty meh Xavier team by 2 in November.

How Does Kentucky Matchup

Defensively, Oakland runs a bit of a wonky zone that gives up a ton of open threes (by design).  In watching some games this season it appears that the Golden Grizzlies are willing to live with open threes as they do everything they can to close off the lane.  That feels dangerous against Kentucky.  In the games Oakland has lost big it is because they let the opposing team get nuclear from three.  Dayton and IPFW both put 90+ points by hitting 17 and 18 threes respectively.  Kentucky is the best shooting team in the country in terms of percentage (Dayton is 3^rd), giving them open threes seems…unwise.

Offensively, the Grizzlies are about as generic as you can get but that doesn’t mean they don’t have players that can score.  They have four guys who average in double figures, including three players who are solid (35%+) shooters.  Kentucky will have to give energy on that end of the floor, especially if there is a stretch where shots aren’t falling on offense.

Player To Watch

Trey Townsend is the player to watch.  He leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals and is an Oakland legacy recruit (both parents played for the Golden Grizzlies).  He has been at Oakland for all 4 years despite being one of the best players in the Horizon and having multiple offers to inter the portal.  Townsend is not especially big for a 4-man as he’s just 6’6” but he’s smart and skilled so Adou Thiero and Tre Mitchell will likely both be needed in this one.

He does most of his work in the high post and at the rim but has shown the ability to hit some outside shots if you leave him open.  He doesn’t attempt very many (about 1 a game but hasn’t attempted a three since late February) but he has shot 35% on the year so Kentucky will have to be mindful when he’s on the perimeter.

Townsend is not a particularly good rebounder (Oakland in general is not a good rebounding team) so Kentucky needs to take advantage.  Can’t afford to give extra opportunities to a team that will probably try to slow this game to a crawl.

Who Wins

Kentucky is going to win.  Probably comfortably.  Despite what the Oakland coach said yesterday this is not a good matchup for the Golden Grizzlies (credit to him for trying to play mind games with a young team though).  They’re going to need a lot of things that are out of their control to go their way pull of an upset.

What Kentucky can not do is spot this team a 7–10 point lead.  We’ve seen inferior teams who aren’t playing with the weight of the world on their shoulders believe they’re the best team in the world when that happens.   This game will likely be competitive for 30 minutes but I expect Kentucky to pull away.

Kentucky wins 89-72.

Go Cats.