Kentucky’s season is in the danger zone, but the tough games don’t stop. Ole Miss comes to town looking to cement their status as an NCAA Tournament team. Meanwhile Kentucky can not afford to lose a 4th straight home game.
When: Tuesday, February 13th, at 9:00pm ET
Where: Rupp Arena
Channel: ESPN
Ole Miss So Far
The Rebels feasted on a very weak non-conference schedule to pad a bunch of wins but have struggled to beat anyone decent. The Rebs have double digit losses to Auburn (twice), Florida, and Tennessee. They are 18-5 (5-5) but still need to string some wins to get themselves off the bubble. Ole Miss sits 60th in Kenpom and 59th in the NET. They have a lot of work to do to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
How Does Kentucky Matchup
In theory, Kentucky should match up well. The Rebels rely heavily on their scorers making some tough shots. Offensively, the Rebs rely heavily on two big and experienced guards. Both Matthew Murrell and Allen Flanigan (how is he still in school) can be tough to guard individually. Ole Miss also has a St. Peters connection as their PG is Jaylen Murray. For those who have blocked that game out of their memory he scored 8 points (hit 2 threes) in that historic upset. Ole Miss shoots the ball well but can be streaky even over the course of a game.
Defensively is where the Rebels really struggle (which is odd if you know much about Chris Beard’s past teams). They block a lot of shots, mostly because they have former Hopkinsville HS star Jamarion Sharp patrolling the paint. He stands at 7’5” and will impact the game if you just let him stand in the paint. Most of the good teams Ole Miss have played have found a way to neutralize him completely and the Rebels have to go small as he’s a complete non-factor on the offensive end and is not a good rebounder.
Player To Watch
I’m cheating and going with two guys in Matthew Murrell and Allen Flanigan. We’ll start with Murrell who has become a much more efficient scorer in his senior year. He is shooting 47% from the floor and 39% from three on high usage. The last time he played against the Cats was 2022 (he missed last year’s game due to injury) and scored 25 points.
Allen Flanigan is a familiar name as he’s spent the previous 4 seasons at Auburn. He’s a big wing at 6’6” who goes on big scoring runs and is also a plus defender. He’s not shooting particularly well this season from 3 but is still finding ways to score. He is one of the better players in the SEC when he’s rolling but the issue has been consistency his entire career. He’s not shooting particularly well this season from 3 but is still finding ways to score.
Who Wins
Kentucky is in full-on desperation mode. Rather than qualify this game as a “must win” I’ll say it’s a “can’t lose”. Winning tonight does almost nothing for Kentucky’s tournament outlook but losing it would put the Cats squarely on the bubble. Ole Miss is going to be a typical Chris Beard team and try to assault you to make up for defensive deficiencies and Kentucky will have to withstand it and try to get to 90. Teams that have handled Ole Miss have kind of out-toughed them and I’m not sure this Kentucky team can do that. Probably going to need to outscore them.
Kentucky wins 91-82 only because I don’t want to think about the vibes if they lose.
Go Cats.
