Kentucky has found a groove late in the season and are an LSU buzzer beater away from being on a 7 game winning streak. The Cats will close out the regular season in Knoxville tomorrow with a chance to not only guarantee the double bye in the SEC Tournament but still alive for 3 seed in the Big Dance.
When: Saturday. March 9th at 4pm ET
Where: Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center, Knoxville, TN
Channel: CBS
Tennessee So Far
Since winning 103-92 in Rupp Arena the Vols are 8-1. They’ve clinched the outright SEC Regular Season Title (kind of meaningless without balanced schedules) and still playing for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols are ranked 5th in both the Kenpom and the NET as they have the statistical profile of a contender. We of course know a tiger can’t change it’s stripes and Tennessee will find a way to lose in the tournament before reaching the Final Four.
The Vols are coming into the Kentucky game hot as they have three straight wins over Auburn, @Alabama, and @South Carolina. There is no denying that the Vols are a very good basketball team.
How Does Kentucky Matchup
This is a tough matchup for Kentucky. Tennessee is a savvy and uber-physical team (they foul on and off the ball a lot). Combine that with one quick guard and an elite college scorer and they have everything needed to be Kentucky’s Kryptonite.
Offensively, Tennessee relies heavily on Dalton Knecht to carry them through offensive lulls that have haunted them in years past. In the matchup in Rupp it actually wasn’t Knecht that hurt the Cats but rather Zakai Zeigler (who took advantage of no DJ Wagner) as he scored 26 points and grabbed 13 assists. Hilariously, they also got a career-high out of the perennial disappointment Josiah Jordan-James as he chipped in another 26 points. Two average shooters combined for 7/15 from three and torched the Cats the entire game.
Defensively the Vols are “elite”. They are aggressive, physical, strong, and have solid length to clean up mistakes on the perimeter (and Knecht makes quite a few). That being said, Kentucky didn’t play all that well and still found a way to put up 92 points despite sleep-walking the first 10 minutes and missing 7 FTs. Some of that is unsustainable as Rob Dillingham went nuclear to get Kentucky back in the game scoring 35 points and hit 6 threes. Kentucky will have to be patient and run good offense because you can’t rely on that consistently (the same way Tennessee can’t rely on two dudes having a career night).
Player To Watch
It’s always Knecht but as we saw in Lexington, Tennessee has several guys who can have a career night if you pay him too much attention. He’s going to be the SEC POTY and almost certainly a first-team All-American who will be playing his last game in Knoxville. Rick Barnes alluded to possibly resting him (and others) since Tennessee already has the regular season title wrapped up but I believe that to be mind games. He’s going to play and he’s going to try and cement his individual awards while also keeping the Vols in play for a 1 seed.
Who Wins
Make no mistake Tennessee being good is sickening and giving them a little slice of humble pie would be nice (though if you made me pick I’d rather beat them next weekend in Nashville). Ideally, Kentucky will keep two average dudes from having career highs and don’t spot Tennessee a 15-point lead like they did in Rupp. If they can do that, I think Kentucky can steal a win.
Despite having a bit of a house money feel for Kentucky this game should be important for the Cats. They really want to avoid playing on Thursday (again the imbalanced conference schedules are an absolute joke) in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats recent surge also them in play for a 3 seed in the Big Dance (outside shot at a 2 seed if they win out including next weekend in Nashville).
I’ll take a Vols 89-83 win in this game but Kentucky beats them next week in Nashville.
Go Cats.
