Kentucky vs. Tennessee: Preview

Kentucky welcomes it’s biggest rival into Rupp Arena tomorrow in a pivotal SEC game.  The Cats are at a bit of a crossroads on the season and a 0-2 week would put the season on the brink.

When: Saturday, February 3^rd, at 8:30pm ET

Where: Rupp Arena

Channel: ESPN

Tennessee So Far

The Vols sit at 15-5 (5-2) and are coming off a home loss of their own (to South Carolina).  The metrics love this Tennessee team despite their 5 losses as they sit 6^th in Kenpom and 5^th in the NET.  Despite the metric love. Tennessee doesn’t really have a marquee win.  They did beat Illinois and Alabama at home and those will end up being good wins but being able to win in Rupp would solidify them as a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

Tennessee is also in contention for the SEC title but will need to win this weekend to get back in the picture.  They have a very favorable schedule down the stretch but a loss here would put a dent in their title charge.

How Does Kentucky Matchup   

This is not an ideal matchup for Kentucky.  South Carolina created the blueprint for how to stop Kentucky and Tennessee has the personnel to implement that.  Rick Barnes has specialized in turning basketball games into street fights and has been allowed to get away with it by SEC officiating. I expect more of the same.

Tennessee is not especially remarkable at any one thing but solid in just about every area. Unlike the most recent Vol teams, they now have an elite scorer who can bail them out of scoring slumps.

Kentucky could be in real trouble if DJ Wagner is not healthy and able to play.  We’ve seen the Cats are able to lose to anyone when he’s not in the lineup and they’ll need his toughness to overcome the physicality Tennessee will be allowed to inject into the game.

Player To Watch

The answer is Dalton Knecht.  He’s been shouldering the offensive load for the Vols as a big scoring wing.  He’s been good the entire year, but he’s hit another gear in SEC play.  Offensively, there isn’t much he can’t do.  Knecht shoots 40% from three and 53% from the field.  He draws fouls and hits 78% from the line.  He has not really flashed much in the way of play-making but this Tennessee team doesn’t really ask him to do that.  He’s a pure scorer.

Ideally, Kentucky could really use Adou who has the size and length to at least slow him down.  He’s still dealing with back spasms though so I’m not sure how many minutes he can play.

Who Wins

This is a huge game for both programs and if Kentucky is healthy, I expect the game to be an all-out war.  DJ will probably be a game-time decision but I do expect him to play.  If he is unable to play I don’t see how Kentucky has the toughness to pull out a win.

Kentucky wins 79-75 and BBN is allowed to breathe a collective sigh of relief.