BBN we’re rolling on with our preview of Kentucky’s 2023 opponents and today we’re on to the Alabama Crimson Tide. If you’ve missed our other previews, you can check them out here:
Series Outlook
Unsurprisingly Kentucky has had limited success against the Crimson Tide only winning twice in 41 tries, the only wins coming in 1922 and 1997 (there was a tie in 1937). Most of the games haven’t really been close though Kentucky did push the 2008 team in Tuscaloosa before losing 17-14. The most recent meeting was during the COVID season in 2020 and it was…ugly. Kentucky had multiple guys out due to the grueling all-SEC schedule and were also dealing with a COVID outbreak. Given that other programs cancelled games for less to avoid embarrassment, it’s a testament to Stoops that he refused to do that and played. Kentucky had a competitive first quarter and even had the ball inside the 10 for a chance to take the lead in the 2nd but fumbled the snap on the FG attempt, then missed another FG on the next possession down 14-3 and things unraveled from there. The final score was 63-3 and it felt like a loss that Old Kentucky Football used to have to endure.
2022 Season
If you listened to the off-season gasbaggery you would think Alabama was in crisis, such are the expectations and standards in Tuscaloosa. The Tide were 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl in blowout fashion over Kansas State (the champions of the B12) but close loses on the road to top 10 teams in Tennessee and LSU cost them an opportunity to play for the SEC Championship Game.
The Tide were led by returning Heisman winner Bryce Young who threw for 3300 yards and 32 TD and leading rusher Jahmyr Gibbs who rushed for 926 yards. As usual a strong OL led the way but there was plenty of handwringing as Alabama slipped out of the top 5 in offensive rankings (they fell all the way to…7th) mostly due to so many defections at WR to the NFL Draft.
Young was asked to make magic happen far too often and with very little big play ability at WR the Alabama offense struggled to keep up with other high-powered offenses. The warning signs were evident in the Week 2 game against Texas on the road, but Alabama survived (as they so often do). They scored 49 points in Knoxville, but they could not stop the gimmicky Vols offense. The real gut punch came against LSU two weeks later when the offense sputtered and LSU stole a win in OT, that cost them the SEC West and gave the voters who have Alabama Fatigue the excuse they needed to leave them out of the CFB playoff.
Alabama also saw some regression on defense (again this all relative because they were still very good defensively). DC Pete Golding’s unit still had one of the best disruptors in CFB in Will Anderson Jr. who led the defense with 17 TFL and 10 sacks.
In the secondary the Tide were led by Kool-Aid McKinstry (also one of the best names in CFB) who was one of the best cover corners in the country.
2023 Outlook
Part of Saban’s genius has been his ability to navigate change. The success he’s had at Alabama means players are constantly leaving early for the NFL and coordinators are always hot coaching candidates. Dynasties usually end when HC’s get too comfortable/stubborn when it comes to replacing great assistants and missing out on the new trends of the sport. Saban is yet to have a misstep including completely changing his offensive philosophy when it became obvious this was were CFB was headed.
He is once again tasked with big replacements. Former OC Bill O’Brien is back in the NFL with the Patriots and former DC Pete Golding is now the DC in Ole Miss. To replace them Saban turned to Notre Dame OC Tommy Reese and brought back old friend Kevin Steele from Miami.
At QB the Tide were forced into a ompetition now that Bryce Young is in the NFL. Returners Jalen Milroe (who did start one game against Texas A&M and was less than impressive) and 2022 5-star recruit Ty Simpson battled it out in Spring. After Spring ball it seemed Saban wasn’t thrilled with just those two so he brought in transfer Tyler Buchner from Notre Dame (who has familiarity with Tommy Reese). As of now no winner has been announced so I suspect the QB competition will creep into the season with all three guys probably getting a look.
Whoever wins the job they will have a plethora of talented players. Jahmyr Gibbs is gone but Jase McCellan rushed for almost 700 yards last year and is back. Two leading WR Jermaine Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks are also back. They combined for almost 1400 yards and 15 TD despite not being the elite mutants that Alabama has gotten used to having out wide. The Tide are probably expecting big leaps from Kobe Prentice and Isaiah Bond to provide some juice.
Defensively Alabama are going to led by McKinstry but also have stalwarts on the DL in Tim Smith and Dallas Turner. They’ve also dipped into the portal and brought transfers Trezmen Marshall (Georgia), Trey Amos (Louisiana), and Jaylen Key (UAB) to shore up things for Kevin Steele.
Who Wins
It’s tempting to look at this game and think “Well Alabama isn’t what they used to be and they could be ripe for the picking”, but we must realize what it means when people are saying Alabama isn’t “what they used to be”. Under Saban Alabama has been the standard in CFB for almost 15 years. Other programs have had success but Alabama has endured. They are no longer the undisputed best team in the conference now that Kirby Smart has taken Saban’s model and implemented it in Athens but that just means Alabama is one of the best 4 or 5 teams in the country instead of THE best team. Barring a complete cratering at the QB position Alabama will be a top 5 team in the country and even then, we need to remember that Saban has won titles with some mediocre QB play.
All of that to say I think Alabama is going to win this game. Things are breaking perfectly for Saban who often must put up a Gold Medal mental gymnastics routine to get his team to play with a chip on their shoulder, now he won’t even have to try hard. Talking heads are seriously picking them to lose to Texas at home and are hyping up Texas A&M as legit SEC contenders again because of *checks notes* Bobby Petrino? Alabama hasn’t lost 3 games in a season since 2010 and I don’t see it happening this year either.
Kentucky will put up a fight and I expect the atmosphere to be intense inside Kroger Field. But Alabama won’t be phased by that, and they’ll win 34-24. Without the safety blanket that has been Alabama’s excellent QB play the last 6-7 years they will be far more balanced and probably more disciplined in all phases of the game.
I think this one drops Kentucky to 6-4 after three straight losses and Kentucky is facing a big two weeks with road games at South Carolina and Louisville to close the season.
