BBN we’re rolling on with our 2023 opponent previews and today we’re on to the Mississippi State Bulldogs. If you’ve missed our other previews, you can check them out here:
Series Outlook
Kentucky and Mississippi State first met in 1914 (a 19-13 Kentucky win). Since 1990 the Cats and Dogs have been cross division rivals and have met every year. Kentucky had a healthy lead in the series until State reeled off 7 in a row from 2009-2015, now it’s dead even at 25-25. The last 8 seasons homefield has been hugely important in this series as each team has protected their homefield. The last time one of them won on the others field was 2014 when Dak Prescott and the undefeated and number one ranked Bulldogs came to Lexington and won 45-31. The last time Kentucky won in Starkville was in 2008 when Kentucky, led by Randall Cobb, blocked an XP in the 4th quarter to hold on to a 14-13 win.
Last season Kentucky won in Kroger Field 27-17 in a game they controlled all the way until a 4th quarter Levis pick 6 gave State life. Fortunately, Levis redeemed himself on the following drive with a big throw to Dekel Crowdus that led to a 50 yard gain and then Chris Rodriguez sealed the game with a TD late in the 4th quarter. Rodriguez rushed for 197 yards and 2 TD, and the Kentucky defense only allowed 22 rushing yards.
2022 Season
In his 3rd season in Starkville Mike Leach was poised to really hit his stride as he was putting his stamp on the culture in Starkville. There was significant improvement in 2022 in several areas.
Led by veteran QB Will Rogers who threw for almost 4000 yards and 35 TD the State offense hummed running Leach’s famous Air Raid system. The Bulldogs spread the wealth out with 4 guys catching over 400 yards and 5 guys averaging over 10 yards a catch.
In the backfield Jo’Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson combined for over 1500 yards and 12 TD from scrimmage. The OL was solid across the board and did the most important thing which is keep Rogers upright. In the run game they did just enough to keep defenses balanced but we’ll see how they adjust to what is presumed to be a more balanced philosophy.
On defense the Bulldogs were stout. DC Zach Arnett runs a unique scheme that fit perfectly with Leach’s philosophy on offense and they created chaos. Led by Emmanuel Forbes who had 6 INT and took 3 back for scores (including the one against Kentucky). State was a top 5 defense in the SEC and were good against run, forcing turnovers, and breaking up passes.
Unfortunately for State, they play in maybe the toughest division in football and the schedule didn’t break right for them. They finished the season 8-4 but 3 of their losses were on the road (LSU, Kentucky, and Alabama) and the 4th was at home to Georgia. They finished the year beating Illinois in the ReliaQuest Bowl to get their 9th win.
2023 Outlook
In December of 2022 the Mississippi State community and all CFB was hit with a gut-punch when Mike Leach tragically passed away. In the wake of that tragedy, State promoted DC Zach Arnett to HC and he immediately began the process of picking up the pieces of a heart-broken program. Arnett brought former App State Kevin Barbay to run the offense.
Will Rogers is back to help steady the transition. Leading WR from 2022 Rara Thomas transferred to Georgia and 2nd leading WR from 2022 Rufus Harvey entered the portal in June. There is still returning production out wide in Jaden Walley and Lideatrick Griffin combining for 800 yards and 7 TD. RB Dillon Johnson is off to Washington, but Jo’Quavious Marks is back and Arnett dipped into the portal to bring Keyvone Lee from Penn State. Up front they’re bringing back a veteran group.
Defense should be the strength for the Bulldogs in 2023. They will have to replace some depth in the front 5 of their unorthodox 3-2-6 but have a strong foundation up front that eats blockers for LB Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson to fly around and make plays. Both guys had over 100 tackles last season.
The secondary will have to replace a lot and will likely determine how good this defense actually is. They’ll need big leaps in development from depth guys last year to replace what game-changing plays Emmanuel Forbes brought to the team.
Overall Mississippi State has the talent to be a competitive team, but it all comes down to how well Arnett can manage the transition. It felt like Leach was on the verge of really breaking through in Starkville and it’s unfortunate that we won’t get to see that.
Who Wins
This one is hard to predict just because everyone in Starkville is still reeling from Leach’s passing. Arnett is an excellent defensive coach and I anticipate his defense won’t miss a beat from last season but there is so much unknown with this program. It probably would have been for Kentucky to get State earlier in the season but if there was ever a time to break the streak in Starkville it is this year.
I’ll predict a close Mississippi State win just because they’ll be desperate to get to bowl eligibility. Barbay will have some growing pains but having a one of the best QBs in the SEC will help the transition and State will be good enough on offense to let their defense keep them in games. Kentucky will drop another frustrating one in Starkville 28-24 and we’ll be left wondering if this was a missed opportunity at a special season as Alabama comes to Lexington the next week.
