We’re rolling on with our 2023 opponent previews and today we’re on to the Missouri Tigers. If you’ve missed our other previews, you can check them out here:
Series Outlook
Kentucky and Missouri first met in 1965 (a 7-0 Kentucky win) and Kentucky leads the all-time series 9-4. Kentucky has kind of owned Missouri since 2015 winning 7 of the last 8 meetings including winning last season’s game in Columbia 21-17. Will Levis tossed 3 TD (2 of which caught by freshmen Dane Key) and Chris Rodriguez ran for over 100 yards but the most notable play was made by punter Colin Goodfellow. With about 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter with Kentucky leading 21-17 a high snap caused Goodfellow to run it down and remarkably get a punt off before being clattered and picking up a serious injury. A flag was thrown for roughing the kicker despite Goodfellow being 40 yards from the original line of scrimmage and it gave Kentucky a first down that helped them close out the game. It was a remarkable display of athleticism and awareness to get the punt off while remaining in the tackle box and gave Kentucky an important win. The rule was changed this offseason so Goodfellow’s legacy was cemented on that sleepy afternoon in Columbia.
2022 Season
With HC Eli Drinkwitz entering his 3rd year there was sense of expectation that Missouri would take the jump from .500 bowl team to an 8 or 9 win team. That did not happen. Missouri was blown out in the 2nd week to future B12 champ Kansas State and then had a massive goof against a bad Auburn team. They did give Georgia a very real scare in early October but in the end that appeared to say more about Georgia than anything as the Bulldogs just decided to play well for 10 minutes and won the game anyway. They did have a “rivalry” win over Arkansas to clinch bowl eligibility but finished 6-7 with a loss to Wake Forest in the Gasparilla Bowl.
Offensively, Missouri was very limited as Brady Cook showed flashes but unable to really stretch the field. He completed 64% of his passes but only threw for 14 TD to go along with 7 INT. He was able to use his legs as he rushed for almost 600 yards and added another 6 TD on the ground.
Cook’s best WR was Dominic Lovett who caught 56 balls for 846 yards and there frankly wasn’t much production at the WR spot after him but highly touted true freshmen Luther Burden showed some real flashes. RB Cody Schrader led the rushing attack with over 700 yards and probably could have been utilized more.
The real strength of Missouri was their defense and special teams. Drinkwitz brought in Blake Baker at DC and the unit took a big step forward to go along with several transfers. Missouri specialized in creating negative plays as they were 2nd in the SEC in TFL.
2023 Outlook
Despite some hemming and hawing from a segment of Missouri fans Drinkwitz is back for his 4th year. He’s made some changes as he’s apparently given up play-calling duties and brought former Fresno State OC Kirby Moore to run the offense. He also chased some big fish in the portal and got several including former Miami QB Jake Garcia to compete with Brady Cook and RS freshmen Sam Horn.
Top WR Dominic Lovett is off to Georgia but Luther Burden is back and Drinkwitz went into the portal and brought Theo Wease Jr. from Oklahoma and Dannis Jackson from Ole Miss. Both guys produced explosive plays albeit in limited snaps at their previous schools.
The OL is also experienced if not supremely talented to go along with a veteran RB room. If Drinkwitz can find the right QB there are pieces in place for this Missouri offense to be very good.
The picture on defense is even better. Missouri returns 8 of 11 starters and might have an all-conference player at every level with DL Darius Robinson and Kristian Williams, LB Ty’Ron Hopper, and DB Kris Abrams-Draine and Daylan Carnell. This could potentially be one of the best defenses in the SEC if things break right in terms of development.
Missouri has a sneaky tough schedule with Kansas State, LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia all on the schedule as well as having to go on the road to play Kentucky and Arkansas (as well as a potentially tough neutral-site game against Memphis in St. Louis). Hard to imagine them making a huge leap unless one of the QB’s become a star but 8 wins isn’t out of the question.
Who Wins
Kentucky will likely be coming off a let-down game down in Athens and these Kentucky/Missouri games always seem to be close (Missouri likely coming off a loss themselves as they play LSU). I think being at home with a veteran QB in Leary helps Kentucky win another one. Kentucky seems to have a mental edge over Missouri and frankly it’s important the program keeps that. As we’ve discussed before the margins are thin in the SEC and Kentucky can’t afford to hand momentum to a program we are directly competing against in the pecking order of the SEC. This is a must-win game for Stoops and Co.
Kentucky will win this one 24-16 off the back of Leary’s efficiency and Kentucky’s defense being able to limit explosive plays from Missouri. Kentucky wins a close one here and heads into the bye week at 6-1. They’ll need the rest because the back stretch of the schedule is a real grind.
