We’re less than a week away from real live football being on our TV and less than two weeks from Kentucky football kicking off against Ball State. We’ve almost survived the summer doldrums. Today we’re taking a preseason look at the Florida Gators but if you’ve missed our others they can be found here:
Series Outlook
Kentucky first played the Florida Gators in 1917 and the series started off very competitive. The Wildcats went to Gainesville and won 31-3 in mid-November 1979 and led the all-time series with Florida 16-14. Then Florida won 37 of the next 38 games in the series including a deeply embarrassing 31 game win streak that stretched from 1987 to 2017. Thankfully Mark Stoops has worked his tail off the flip the culture at Kentucky and since 2018 Kentucky has won 3 of the last 5 meetings including 2 straight (and winning twice in Gainesville). Last year Kentucky went into The Swamp and won 26-16 without one of the best RB in the country in Chris Rodriguez. Led by Levis throwing for over 200 yards and over 100 yards on the ground combined from Kavosiey Smoke and La’Vell Wright. The defense completely stifled future top 5 draft pick Anthony Richardson’s dynamic run game and (he only had 4 yards on the ground) they forced him to hand the ball off a lot on read options and gambled that he couldn’t beat them with his arm. He could not and Kentucky got another important win over Florida and has frankly been the better program the last 5 seasons.
2022 Season Look Back
Billy Napier was done no favors in his first season with the schedule. Dan Mullen had been let go for his inability to prioritize recruiting and 3 of Napier’s first 4 games were against top 10 team and future PAC-12 Champ Utah, Kentucky, and on the road to borderline top 5 team Tennessee. The schedule didn’t get much easier as he also had SEC West Champ LSU, Georgia, and another top 10 team in Florida State. Florida really struggled as they finished 6-6 with an embarrassing loss to Vandy in November that really put a black eye on the season (sound familiar?). To make it worse they looked completely lifeless in the bowl game and were blown out by Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Despite such a poor season their QB was drafted in the top 5. Anthony Richardson led the offense throwing for 2500+ yards and rushed for over 650. His dynamism allowed Florida to create really intriguing looks in the running game and RBs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne combined for over 1500 yards on the ground.
The problem is the Florida WR really struggled to get any separation and outside of 2nd round draft pick O’Cyrus Torrence they really struggled on the OL. Richardson was unable to show his incredible arm talent and as the season progressed the offense floundered.
On defense Florida continued the decline that started under Mullen. What had long been a staple of the Florida program has become a weakness. They were particularly bad on 3rd down allowing opponents to convert on almost 50% (the worst in the SEC).
2023 Outlook
Napier is back for his 2nd season and he’s continuing the process of completely retooling the program. He’s brought a top 20 ranked recruiting class as well as several transfers in hopes to get Florida back on track.
The dynamic Anthony Richardson is gone, and Napier has brought in former Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz to replace him. Mertz had an up and down time with the Badgers only completing 59% of his passes and 21 INT’s over two years as the full-time starter. He quickly won the job in Gainesville and folks around the program seem positive that he’s grasped Napier’s system and will flourish now that he’s been unshackled from Wisconsin.
Florida will have Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne back in the backfield and slot WR Ricky Pearsall is also back as the one Florida WR who could leave 2022 with a positive feeling. Up front they’ve brought in transfers from Baylor and Alabama and to upgrade a really bad OL. Austin Barber is the only returning starter but adding portal guys in Micah Mazzccua from Baylor and Damien George from Alabama add the kind of physicality that Napier really thrived with at Louisiana.
Defensively Florida is in transition. Co-DC Patrick Toney left for the Cardinals and Napier brought in a highly thought of young coach in Austin Armstrong to fill that role. He along with fellow co-DC Sean Spencer look to revamp a defense that should be good. They are replacing a lot which is probably a blessing as they can build around their scheme with players they’ve recruited for specific roles. They’ve brought in multiple portal guys along the front 7, the most notable being DL Cam Jackson from Memphis. 2023 top 50 recruit Kolby Collins is also coming in and expected to get some snaps as a true Freshmen. Their best returning DL is Princely Umanmielen who led Florida with 9.5 TFL last season.
In the secondary they are banking on leaps in development from 2022 elite recruit Kamari Wilson and they brought in several highly recruited DB’s in the 2023 class.
Who Wins
This one is tough. Florida has one of if not the hardest schedules in the country. They will be playing two top 15 teams before playing Kentucky (one of the road in Utah) so from their perspective the Kentucky game will likely define their season. To make matters worse all of Florida’s rivals are thriving. Georgia is rolling, Florida State is a preseason top 10 team, and Tennessee is perceived to be back (I am skeptical of that). Kentucky is a must-win game for them and this roster has the potential to be a top 25 team.
Being at home probably swings this one to Kentucky and they hold off a desperate Florida team 24-20. By the end of the season Florida could be playing like a top 25 team but that schedule is brutal and it’s rare the best-case scenario for any team to play out in CFB (something to remember when you see folks predicting Kentucky to win 9 or 10 games).
Kentucky matches up well with this Florida team on both sides of the ball and I just don’t see the Gators making that big of a leap this early in the season. I really like Billy Napier and think, if given time, he’ll get Florida turned around. The problem is the schedule is brutal and the SEC did him no favors next season either, not to mention he’s in a knife-fight in recruiting trying to make up the ground Mullen lost with Alabama, Georgia, and FSU in his own state. He’s under immense pressure to win every single toss-up game on Florida’s schedule and I consider this match-up with Kentucky one of those. Kentucky fans better be ready to create a great atmosphere because Florida will be coming into Lexington knowing their season depends on winning that game.
