We’re finally out of the slog of meh non-conference opponents and dip our toes into the SEC schedule. Today we’re on to the much improved Vanderbilt Commodores. You can check out previous preseason looks here:
Series Outlook
Kentucky first played Vandy in 1896 (6-0 Vandy win) and despite losing 16 of the first 17 contests Kentucky leads the all-time series 48-43-4 including winning 6 of the last 7. Unfortunately, Vanderbilt will be confident having won last year’s meeting 24-21 in a truly embarrassing moment for the Kentucky football program. Vandy came into Lexington and gashed Kentucky for 264 yards on the ground completely stifled the passing game and scored a go-ahead TD with 30 seconds left.
2022 Season Look Back
Coming into Clark Lea’s 2nd season Vandy was just looking for improvement and boy did they get it. They opened the year 3-1 and looked to have some real momentum but the schedule was unkind as they drew both Alabama and Georgia not only in same season but both in a three game stretch. They finished 5-7 but closed the year with a win over Kentucky and Florida.
Offensively they struggled with the QB position. True freshmen AJ Swann was the preferred guy but injuries hampered him and back-up QB Mike Wright filled in valiantly offering a different style with his legs. Swann’s most impressive game was in a loss to Ole Miss where he threw for 280 yards and two scores. Mike Wright played well in both of Vandy’s biggest wins at Kentucky and home against Florida.
Vandy also had the luxury of having a 1000 yard rusher in Ray Davis and a solid WR in Will Sheppard. The OL also took significant strides in the Lea’s 2nd year. Nobody would classify the group up front as dominant but they were competent and disciplined giving up few sacks and committing very few penalties.
Defensively Vandy had one of the worst pass defenses in the SEC (which makes what they did to Will Levis all the more perplexing and embarrassing). They gave up 8.7 yards an attempt and were unable to generate any pressure. They had high hopes for edge rusher MIles Capers coming off his freshmen year but lost him early in the presason to an injury. They never could find the right combination to get pressure on the QB but a lot of guys got experience.
2023 Outlook
Lea is back for his third year and it appears he has some real momentum. AJ Swann is back for his sophomore year looking to build off some of the really nice flashes he showed and the competent OL returns 70 starts. Swann will also have some real talent for him to throw to with Sheppard (776 yards and 9 TD’s), Jayden McGowan (453 yards and 3 TD’s), and Quincy Skinner Jr. (238 yards and 2 TD’s) all returning.
2022 leading rusher Ray Davis is now in a Kentucky uniform and 2nd leading rusher Mike Wright transferred to Mississippi State so Lea will have his hands full trying to find some consistency in the running game. Rumblings are true freshmen Sedrick Alexander will be expected to be a big factor. As someone who loves Texas HS football I saw Alexander play a few playoff games in person over the years and he was an absolute warrior so that doesn’t surprise me.
Defensively, Vandy is bringing back Miles Capers off an injury to go along with a couple of young pass-rushers that got looks in his absence last year and they’ve added portal depth at that spot as well with Stanford transfer Aenas DiCosmo.
Everywhere else on defense Vandy is largely banking on their own talent ID and development. One name that a lot of folks keep mentioning to me is LB Bryce Cowan. He didn’t see any action last season but had a good Spring and a lot of those who know keep comparing him to former All-SEC LB and eventual 2nd round pick Zach Cunningham.
Who Wins
This has become a huge game because Kentucky laid an egg last year and handed a downtrodden Vandy program a lifeline. It was a truly embarrassing performance that went beyond just the disastrous result on the field and probably didn’t get enough criticism at the time. SEC football is a knife fight and the margins between 5-7 and 8-4 are thin, having a performance that costs you a bigger Bowl Game or costs your prospective first round QB money which then leads you to lose a couple of your preferred recruits hurts. It hurts doubly when you hand another SEC program momentum that might land them a recruit they wouldn’t have gotten otherwise.
Kentucky will win this game, but it will be closer than any of us want it to be. Kentucky flexed it’s NIL muscle and pulled Ray Davis from Vandy but Clark Lea is a good coach and much like Stoops did when he first took the Kentucky job he is confident there is a path to success despite the disadvantages. Vandy gets the benefit of a Week 0 game (again) so they will have played all 4 of their non-conference games and will likely be 3-1. I’d encourage all Kentucky fans to watch that September 9th road game against Wake Forest. That game will likely tell us which way Vandy is trending this year. I expect Vandy to be a smart and tough team that doesn’t beat itself. Lack of high end talent probably means they’ll be on the losing end and any injury to key players could be disastrous but this is no longer a game you can just chalk up as a win. Kentucky will have to show up and play ball if they plan on leaving Nashville with a win.
Kentucky wins this one 31-17 and are 4-0 on the season. Kentucky has improved enough along the OL and made a massive upgrade at OC and are able to pinpoint enough weaknesses in Vandy’s defense to control the game in a sleepy atmosphere in Nashville.
