What Has Happened To Louisville Basketball? | Opinion

Opinion: On April 8^th, 2013 the Louisville Cardinals basketball program became NCAA Champions for the 3^rd time in their program’s history and cemented their place as a top 10 program.  The 2013 title capped off more than a decade of excellence with Pitino at the helm and it appeared they were poised for more.  Since the final buzzer sounded in Atlanta Louisville basketball hasn’t been the same.  We’re now approaching a decade since that night and Louisville fans have mostly been force fed gross scandal, NCAA sanctions including being the first program stripped of a title in the modern era, threat of lawsuits, embarrassing losses, false hope, and generally being the laughingstock of CBB.  All of that has culminated in this season from Hell.  Sitting on a 4-26 record Louisville heads in to their final game of the 2022/2023 season desperate for any sign of life. 

How Did We Get Here

After Mack embarrassed himself and quit on the program Louisville needed a spark and it decided to return to it’s roots by bringing back former player Kenny Payne.  On the surface this felt like a no-brainer with KP’s connections in recruiting circles and his ability to connect where Louisville wanted to go to Louisville’s proud tradition, but things have not gone to plan.  KP has lost just about every major recruiting battle, including one in where he hired the recruit’s grandfather (another former Cardinal great) to John Calipari and more importantly he’s lost on the court.  Louisville has lost basketball games in just about every way imaginable: excruciatingly close losses to mid-majors, bad blow-outs, and even a couple of hard-fought losses where it looked like they were close to figuring things out but then followed by something more disappointing. 

The roster is full of guys that don’t look like ACC level players and we’re now at the point where Kenny Payne is actively telling fans that not only are the players not good enough but also insinuating they don’t have the work ethic to be on the team and a mass clear out was needed.  Despite this, he continues to play the same players seemingly holding no one accountable nor is there a culture being established (or at least not a good one).  Sloppy play on both ends of the floor and lack of effort have been the staple of Cardinal basketball this year. 

Year 0?

In college football we often hear about the concept of a Year 0 where a program is in a total rebuild and a new coach just needs to establish a foundation in his first year while evaluating where the roster is to eventually turn it over and the real Year 1 begins in his 2^nd year. The problem is this doesn’t work in modern CBB and frankly isn’t necessary.  With the transfer portal and far smaller rosters there is never any excuse for a program like UL to be in a multi-year rebuild.  Anyone trying to spin this season as part of a “process” is either dishonest or sorely out of their depth in terms of analysis.  Kenny Payne and his staff completely whiffed in the portal going into this season (the other option is they thought this team was good enough and if so they should all be fired immediately) and it cost Louisville on the court.  There are legitimate excuses if you squint hard enough as they got into the HS recruiting game late and the NCAA cloud was still hanging over the program so maybe transfers didn’t want that risk.  Personally, the NCAA cloud seems like a cop-out since other programs are able to recruit just fine but even giving them that excuse it is no longer applicable now that the NCAA stuff is in the past.   

What To Expect Going Forward

Part of the angst around the program is this has felt like a lost year where fans have learned nothing.  Louisville fans already knew the players weren’t good enough based on how the season finished last season, they didn’t need to sit through a 4 win season to find that out.  That lack of talent also obfuscates the coaching ability of the staff.  Were Kenny Payne and his staff hurt by NCAA sanctions looming over the program that cost them portal players that would have made this team respectable?  Or did their own off-season recruiting bravado backfire as they missed target after target and left them with a squad they had no idea how to manage with a first year coach who was out of his depth? 

Like most things in life I think the truth is probably in the middle, I believe mistakes were made by multiple people.  I don’t think Louisville needed to hire a first time HC to begin with and certainly not while the program is in such a precarious position.  Duke and UNC pivoted to long-time assistants who could easily transition with both programs in a healthy place.  Louisville was in turmoil and needed a steady hand to calm things down, instead they have a first time HC learning on the job (with no idea of how good of a coach he actually is) and getting his feet underneath of him on the recruiting trail.

The challenge for Josh Heird will be assessing the situation and acting quickly either way.  Louisville only needs to look a few miles up the road at IU to learn what prolonged irrelevancy can do to an elite program.  Louisville can make significant improvement next year and still be on the bubble but quite frankly that shouldn’t be where Louisville is barring unforeseen circumstances.  The ACC is as down as it’s ever been and it is not a crazy to expect Louisville basketball to be back in the top half of the ACC and solidly in the tournament next year.  Those should be the benchmarks for Kenny Payne going into year 2 and he should embrace it this off-season in an attempt to get fans back on board.  Louisville basketball means too much to the community and CBB in general to accept anything less. 

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