Kentucky vs. Florida Part II: Preview

For the 2^nd time this season Kentucky will take on the Florida Gators.  This is a must-win game in terms of competing for the SEC and the Cats must protect home-court.

When: Wednesday, January 31^st at 8pm ET

Where: Rupp Arena

Channel: ESPN

Florida So Far

The Gators are 4-2 since losing to Kentucky.  The losses have both been on the road with blowouts to both Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Gators are currently on a three-game winning streak and are most recently coming off an emotional home OT win over Georgia.

Florida sits 36^th in Kenpom and currently has a top 15 AdjO but rank 99^th in AdjD.  In the NET, Florida comes in at 39^th, so this will not be a Quad 1 opportunity.

How Does Kentucky Matchup

Florida has just enough scorers and are well-coached enough to beat just about anyone in the country.  They gave Kentucky fits for a 25 minutes in the first matchup as they took advantage of a lack of intensity from the young Cats.

Florida prides itself on it’s rebounding, specifically it’s ability to create extra possessions with offensive rebounds.  It is really the only thing the Gators do at a high level.  Keeping them off the offensive glass should be the sole priority.  Kentucky was able to do that in the 2^nd half in Gainesville and erased an 8 point deficit.

Player To Watch

Florida has a couple of guys who can score (three of them lit Kentucky up) but the real guy to watch is Micah Handlogten.  He only scored 6 points in the first matchup, but he grabbed 12 rebounds.  Most importantly he grabbed 6 offensive rebounds which is the lifeblood of the Florida offense.

For the season, Handlogten has an impressive ORB% of 19.7 (for reference, Oscar had two straight years of 19.5 and was one of the best rebounders in CBB history).  Ugo played an important 14 minutes in just his 4^th game back.  I’d expect him to be an important piece in this one too.

Who Wins

Florida is an NCAA tournament team, but it probably needs a few more Quad 1 wins to really cement itself.  They are also well coached and have now seen plenty of tape on how to get Kentucky’s offense trapped in the mud.  I don’t think Florida has the personnel to do what South Carolina (and even Arkansas) were able to do but I expect them to try.  For Kentucky, they can’t afford to drop home games if they really want to push for the SEC Title and they certainly can’t drop another Quad 2 game if they want to get to a 2-seed.

Kentucky wins 81-73.