Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: Preview

Kentucky tries to get back to winning as they return home Tuesday to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Lets take a look at what we can expect from the Bulldogs.

When: Wednesday, January 17th at 7pm ET

Where: Rupp Arena

Channel: ESPN2

Mississippi State So Far

The Bulldogs had some optimism going into Chris Jans’ 2^nd season as HC and the return of 6^th year Senior Tolu Smith.  Smith got hurt in preseason and the Bulldogs had to throw a couple of guys directly into the fire.  They were able to pick up some wins on average P6 teams in the PAC-12 and B1G but have a disastrous home loss to Southern.  They currently sit at 12-4 (1-2) on the season but much like A&M their record is a little deceiving due to injuries.

Tolu Smith returned to the team on NYE and in his first start they upset 5^th ranked Tennessee at home.  They are coming off a close home loss to Alabama but are a much better team with Tolu Smith healthy.

How Does Kentucky Matchup

Mississippi State are big and tough.  They are an excellent defensive team (ranked 9^th in the Adj. D on Kenpom) and have gotten better with the Tolu Smith getting healthy.  Ugo and Bradshaw will need to stay out foul trouble and be ready for a fist fight.  Tre Mitchell will also need a bounce-back game to help pull the State bigs away from the basket.

The Bulldogs gave up 82 points to Alabama and I think Kentucky is certainly capable of matching that, despite State’s defensive metrics.  State’s guards will struggle to stay in front of the Cats’ backcourt but Kentucky will need to shoot well to open things up.

Offensively, Mississippi State is going to use their size to try and wear Kentucky down.  They don’t shoot a ton of threes and don’t shoot it particularly well but are capable.  Guys like Josh Hubbard and Shakeel Moore shooting above 35% from three on the season.  The real offense comes from inside (and the FT line).

Player To Watch

It’s Tolu Smith now that he’s healthy.  The Bulldogs have some good players (somehow DJ Jefferies is still in college) but Smith is the straw that stirs the drink.  He’s big, athletic, and skilled but his best ability is drawing fouls.  Since returning from injury, he’s averaged 8 FTA a game (and he is shooting 74% this year).  His ability to draw fouls places pressure on the defender which allows more space for him to operate in the post where he shoots 58%.

He’s also very good defensively (though he is helped by the scheme) as he’s athletic enough to hold his own in space and provides decent rim protection.  He’s not an elite rebounder but good enough and can control a game on the glass if you let him.

Who Wins

Kentucky is at home and should win this game.  That being said the Bulldogs are a very good team with their star player back. Even with Smith only playing 4 games State is ranked 29^th in Kenpom.  Had he been healthy the whole season they are certainly a top 20 Kenpom team.  This game is going to be a war and Kentucky will need all hands-on deck.  It’s also another game where not having Adou is a major blow.  State isn’t as athletic on the wing as A&M was, but we’re probably going to need as many bodies as possible to slow down their interior.

The good news is Kentucky’s offense should still be able to score if they shoot their averages.  If Kentucky can avoid racking up fouls and play composed on offense, they’ll control the game and win.

Cats win 79-74.