Kentucky has their season back on track. They’ve picked up 4 Quad 1 wins since losing at Georgia almost 2 weeks ago and are now firmly in the tournament barring a complete collapse down the stretch. At this point the Cats are playing for seeding in the last 3 regular season games and the SEC Tournament. So realistically how high can this team climb and what are reasonable expectations?
Best Case
First off let’s start with best case scenario where Kentucky wins the final 3 games of the regular season. That would leave the Cats 22-9 and 13-5 in the SEC which, considering how bleak things looked a couple of weeks ago, would be a decent finish. They’d almost certainly be 3rd (they do own the tiebreaker over A&M so there is an outside chance they catch them for 2nd if the Aggies lose their final 3 games) in the SEC and set themselves up to avoid Alabama until the SEC Championship Game. If Kentucky is also able to win the SEC Tournament I think 25-9 (15-5) is probably good enough to finish as a 5 seed depending on how other conference tournaments go. Based on the 28 games we’ve watched of this team so far; this scenario feels unlikely to me but it’s nice to have this option on the table considering where we were earlier in the season.
Worst Case
I don’t normally like thinking about worst case scenarios in life but I do think it’s important to mention because this team cannot relax. They can lose to Auburn or Vandy at home and can play well down in Fayetteville and it still not be good enough to win. Losing two of three would likely knock Kentucky out of the double bye in the SEC Tournament and having to play on Thursday. Will give the Cats a win in that first round but then lose in the Friday game. So we’ll give the Cats 2 wins down the stretch and finishing the season 21-12. They’re still in the tournament based on what they’ve done to date but they’d be entering the tournament on a whimper and are likely a 9/10 seed with the possibility of falling back into a 11 seed and the play-in game in Dayton.
Most Likely
Here is where I’ll talk about what I think is most likely to happen. I believe Kentucky likely wins the two home games which locks up the 3 seed in the SEC Tournament. They head down to Fayetteville to Arkansas with a team that is a nightmare match-up for them and probably lose. Finishing the year 21-10 (12-6) which is below expectations but could have been a lot worse considering the injuries we’ve had. Going into the SEC Tournament they win the Friday game and then knock off a solid A&M team (which would likely be another Quad 1 win) to get to Sunday and a showdown with Alabama. We’ve seen in the past the committee usually doesn’t take the SEC title game into account for seeding purposes and Alabama is likely a one seed regardless so the committee might not even be watching the game. We’ll say Kentucky drops a close one and are 23-11 (14-7) with 6 Quad 1 wins. That is probably good enough to get them to a 7 seed and maybe a 6 seed if they beat Alabama and the committee is paying attention.
The Tournament
So what can we expect in the tournament with this team? Frankly, I have no idea and I’m not sure anyone can feel strongly one way or the other. In my opinion CBB is incredibly watered down this year (for a combination of reasons). All 4 of the projected 1 seeds (Alabama, Purdue, Houston, and Kansas) would be 3 or 4 seeds at best in other years and that mediocrity spreads down the field of 68 in my opinion and really makes this tournament nearly impossible to predict. We’ve seen this Kentucky team look like one of the best teams in the country before looking like an NIT team (sometimes in the same game) and in a one game scenario I think they are capable of losing to anyone in the field.
However, the things Kentucky does well can lead to them making them a run. They are an elite rebounding team, they have an efficient and patient offense, pretty good FT shooting team, and have individuals who have shown a knack for making winning plays in crunch time on both ends of the floor. If they can get CJ/Wheeler back to help keep Cason/Reeves fresh so they can be fresh to run late game offense I can squint hard enough and see a team that can find themselves in the S16 if they get the right match-ups.
I know that is not where Kentucky fans expect to be at the end of the year but I’d prefer to have big picture talks about the program after the season is over. We’re now at the business end of the season and regardless of our opinions all of these guys have battled through quite a bit of adversity and noise to keep the season alive and avoid disaster. This is likely going to be the last few games we get to see of Oscar Tshiebwe in a Kentucky jersey and I hope we all cherish it.
What do you think? Leave a comment below.
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